The future potential for wine production in Scotland under high-end climate change

Wine production is climate dependent and highly sensitive to weather variability, which makes the sector a good indicator of ongoing and future climate change impacts. Under high-end climate change (HECC), temperatures in Scotland are projected to increase significantly by the end of the twenty-first century. This raises the possibility of future temperatures becoming sufficiently high to support the growth of wine grapes. In this paper, we explore to what extent Scotland might become suitable for wine production under HECC using a climate analogue approach. Specifically, we address the following questions. What are the projected late twenty-first century temperature changes in Scotland? Where in Europe are current climates (based on summer and annual temperatures) similar to those projected for Scotland by the end of the twenty-first century under HECC? Are any of these locations currently wine grape growing regions? The temperature analogues towards the end of the twenty-first century occurred at more southerly latitudes in Europe, with some variability from west to east arising from the influence of continental climates. Temperature analogues alone match with several current wine grape growing regions of Europe, suggesting that future climates in Scotland could support wine production. However, when precipitation and/or lithology and topography are also taken into account, no matches were found with existing European wine grape growing regions. This study demonstrates how the use of climate analogues in combination with other environmental datasets can be useful in understanding future climate change impacts, especially under HECC.